Every Shopify merchant tracks ROAS during Valentine’s Day. It’s the default metric, the number everyone reports in Slack channels and mastermind groups. But here’s the uncomfortable truth: ROAS alone tells you almost nothing about whether your Valentine’s campaign is actually profitable.
A 4x ROAS sounds impressive until you factor in that 60% of those customers used a 30% discount code, your average order value dropped by 25%, and your customer acquisition cost for Valentine’s shoppers is triple what you’d pay in March. Suddenly, that “successful” campaign looks very different.
This guide breaks down the metrics that separate merchants who profit from Valentine’s Day from those who just move inventory at a loss.
The Problem with Surface-Level Valentine’s Metrics
Valentine’s Day creates unique measurement challenges that standard e-commerce analytics struggle to capture.
Why Standard ROAS Misleads
ROAS (Return on Ad Spend) measures revenue generated per dollar spent on advertising. The formula is simple: Revenue / Ad Spend. But this metric ignores:
- Discount erosion: That $100 order might have been $130 without your Valentine’s discount
- Gift purchaser behavior: Valentine’s buyers often purchase once and never return
- Product mix shifts: Holiday promotions may push lower-margin products
- Return rates: Gift purchases have notoriously higher return rates
The Gift-Giver vs. Self-Purchaser Problem
Valentine’s Day brings a unique customer type: the gift-giver. This person:
- Isn’t buying for themselves
- May never visit your store again
- Chose you based on gift appropriateness, not brand loyalty
- Won’t respond to your post-purchase emails (they’re not the end user)
Standard LTV calculations assume the purchaser becomes a repeat customer. For Valentine’s gift-givers, this assumption breaks completely.
The 7 KPIs That Actually Matter for Valentine’s Campaigns
1. Contribution Margin per Order
Forget gross revenue. Calculate what each order actually contributes after all variable costs:
| Component | Example |
|---|---|
| Order Value | $85 |
| Discount Applied | -$17 (20%) |
| COGS | -$34 |
| Shipping Cost | -$8 |
| Payment Processing | -$2.50 |
| Packaging | -$3 |
| Contribution Margin | $20.50 |
Now compare that $20.50 to your customer acquisition cost. If you spent $25 to acquire that customer, your Valentine’s campaign lost money—regardless of what ROAS shows.
2. New Customer CAC vs. Returning Customer CAC
Valentine’s Day skews heavily toward new customer acquisition. Gift-givers searching “Valentine’s gifts for him” likely haven’t heard of your brand. Track acquisition costs separately:
- New Customer CAC: Total marketing spend to new customers / New customers acquired
- Returning Customer CAC: Marketing spend to existing customers / Returning customer orders
During Valentine’s, new customer CAC typically spikes 40-60% due to increased competition. If you’re not measuring this separately, you’re averaging away critical insights.
3. Blended vs. Campaign-Specific Conversion Rate
Your overall store conversion rate during Valentine’s might look healthy, but dig deeper:
| Traffic Source | Conversion Rate | AOV | Contribution Margin % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Meta Ads – Valentine’s Campaign | 2.8% | $72 | 18% |
| Google Shopping – Gift Keywords | 3.2% | $95 | 31% |
| Email – Existing Customers | 4.5% | $110 | 42% |
| Direct/Organic | 3.8% | $88 | 38% |
This granularity reveals that your Meta Valentine’s campaign converts reasonably but at terrible margins, while email to existing customers is highly profitable.
4. Discount Redemption Rate by Segment
Track what percentage of customers actually use discount codes, and segment by customer type:
- New visitors: What percentage of first-time visitors redeem Valentine’s offers?
- Returning visitors: Are loyal customers waiting for discounts they’d skip otherwise?
- Cart abandoners: Do recovery discounts drive incremental purchases?
If 80% of your returning customers are redeeming Valentine’s discounts, you’re training your best customers to expect deals. That’s margin erosion disguised as sales success.
5. Revenue Per Visitor (RPV)
RPV combines conversion rate and average order value into a single metric that accounts for both traffic quality and purchase behavior:
Revenue Per Visitor = Conversion Rate × Average Order Value
During Valentine’s, monitor RPV daily. A high conversion rate means nothing if your aggressive discounting tanks AOV to the point where RPV drops below normal periods.
6. Gift vs. Self-Purchase Ratio
Estimate what percentage of Valentine’s orders are gifts versus self-purchases. Indicators include:
- Different shipping and billing addresses
- Gift wrap additions
- Gift message inclusions
- Product categories typically gifted vs. self-purchased
High gift ratios (60%+) suggest lower expected customer lifetime value from Valentine’s cohorts. Adjust your CAC targets accordingly.
7. 90-Day Post-Valentine’s Repurchase Rate
The true test of Valentine’s campaign success isn’t February revenue—it’s whether those customers return. Track:
- What percentage of Valentine’s customers make a second purchase within 90 days?
- How does this compare to customers acquired during non-holiday periods?
- Does the repurchase rate differ between gift-givers and self-purchasers?
Industry data suggests Valentine’s gift-givers repurchase at 40-60% lower rates than customers acquired through regular channels. Factor this into your acquisition cost calculations.
Building Your Valentine’s Analytics Dashboard
Stop checking metrics in five different tools. Consolidate Valentine’s KPIs into a single view that answers the questions that matter.
Daily Monitoring Metrics
During your Valentine’s campaign (typically February 1-14), track daily:
- Revenue (total and by campaign)
- Contribution margin per order
- New vs. returning customer split
- Discount redemption rate
- Revenue per visitor
Campaign-Level Analysis
For each marketing channel and campaign:
- Customer acquisition cost (separated by new/returning)
- Conversion rate and AOV
- Margin after discounts
- Projected customer lifetime value
Tools for Valentine’s Analytics
Growth Suite provides comprehensive analytics specifically designed for promotional campaigns. The dashboard includes funnel visualization showing exactly where visitors drop off, campaign performance tracking, and importantly, contribution margin analysis that accounts for discounts. This eliminates the spreadsheet gymnastics most merchants do to understand true profitability.
The platform’s export capabilities (CSV and direct Google Sheets integration) let you combine Growth Suite data with your other analytics for complete visibility into Valentine’s campaign performance.
Analyzing Your Valentine’s Funnel
Understanding where customers drop off reveals optimization opportunities more valuable than any single metric.
The Valentine’s Purchase Funnel
| Stage | Typical Drop-off | Valentine’s-Specific Issues |
|---|---|---|
| Landing → Product View | 40-50% | Gift navigation confusion |
| Product View → Add to Cart | 70-80% | Price comparison, gift uncertainty |
| Add to Cart → Checkout | 50-60% | Shipping deadline concerns |
| Checkout → Purchase | 20-30% | Payment/address complexity |
Identifying Valentine’s-Specific Drop-offs
Compare your Valentine’s funnel to baseline periods. Significant differences reveal holiday-specific friction:
- Higher landing page bounce: Your Valentine’s messaging doesn’t resonate or pages load slowly under traffic surge
- Lower add-to-cart rate: Gift buyers face decision paralysis without clear guidance
- Higher cart abandonment: Shipping cutoff anxiety or unexpected costs
- Checkout drop-off: Gift recipients’ addresses add complexity
Growth Suite’s funnel visualization makes these comparisons visual and immediate. You can see exactly where your Valentine’s traffic diverges from normal behavior and prioritize fixes accordingly.
Segmenting Valentine’s Customers for Accurate LTV
Don’t blend Valentine’s customers into your general LTV calculations. Create distinct segments:
Segment 1: Confirmed Gift-Givers
Customers with different billing and shipping addresses, or who selected gift options.
- Expected repurchase rate: 15-25% (they may gift again next year)
- Email strategy: Focus on gift reminders, not product education
- LTV assumption: Use conservative 1.2-1.5 orders over 2 years
Segment 2: Likely Self-Purchasers
Same billing and shipping address, no gift options selected.
- Expected repurchase rate: 25-40% (typical new customer range)
- Email strategy: Standard welcome and nurture sequences
- LTV assumption: Align with general new customer LTV
Segment 3: Returning Customers
Existing customers making Valentine’s purchases.
- Key question: Did they use a discount they would have skipped otherwise?
- Risk: Training loyal customers to wait for promotions
- LTV impact: May reduce if discount dependency forms
Post-Valentine’s Analysis Framework
The real learning happens after February 14th. Schedule analysis checkpoints:
February 15-17: Immediate Debrief
- Total revenue vs. target
- Contribution margin achieved
- Inventory impact (stockouts, overstock)
- Customer service issues flagged
March 15: 30-Day Check
- Return rate on Valentine’s orders
- Early repurchase signals
- Email engagement from Valentine’s cohort
May 15: 90-Day True-Up
- Actual repurchase rate vs. projected
- LTV trajectory of Valentine’s customers
- True CAC accounting for returns and repurchases
- Lessons for next year’s planning
Setting Realistic Valentine’s KPI Targets
Based on industry benchmarks and the unique challenges of Valentine’s campaigns:
| KPI | Realistic Target | Red Flag |
|---|---|---|
| Contribution Margin per Order | 15-25% | Below 10% |
| New Customer CAC | 1.5-2x normal | Above 3x normal |
| Discount Redemption (New) | 50-70% | Below 30% (offer not compelling) or above 85% (too aggressive) |
| 90-Day Repurchase Rate | 15-25% | Below 10% |
| Revenue Per Visitor | Within 15% of baseline | Below 70% of baseline |
Key Takeaways
- ROAS alone is misleading — contribution margin per order reveals true profitability
- Separate new and returning customer CAC — Valentine’s acquisition costs spike dramatically
- Track gift vs. self-purchase ratio — gift-givers have fundamentally different LTV
- Monitor discount redemption by segment — high redemption among loyal customers signals margin erosion
- Revenue per visitor matters more than conversion rate — it accounts for AOV impacts
- 90-day repurchase rate is the ultimate success metric — true Valentine’s ROI emerges months later
- Segment Valentine’s customers for accurate LTV — don’t blend gift-givers into general calculations
Valentine’s Day success isn’t about hitting the highest revenue number—it’s about acquiring customers profitably and setting up long-term value. The merchants who track the right KPIs make better decisions, protect their margins, and build sustainable growth rather than just chasing vanity metrics.
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